The Economist feels peaky
Every now and then a glimps of the impending resource desaster makes it through the fog into the rooms of the editors of main stream media. To be fair to those people, they have to provide their readers with news, preferable with good news and peak-oil definitely falls not into that category. Let’s not judge these media types too hard though and be thankful for every little crumb of truth bread being fed to us. The Economist, a periodical almost as old as the venerable British Empire now defunct (are Scotland and Wales still part of it?), after Britain made Europe safe for communism and insisted that Poland should be owned by Stalin rather than Hitler (who never wanted it for keeps anyway), today opines that maybe, just maybe “supply is inadequate to keep up with rising demand“. Now how about that! The Economist, the closest thing to Peak British as we can imagine, now contemplates that global oil production might have arrived at a plateau of sorts and that in the coming decade production will merely increase with 0.8%/year, leading to a doubling of the oil price, this having a modest negative effect on economic growth of 0.2%/year. We are pleasantly surprised that the Economist has itself intellectually arrived at the plateau concept of oil production and then really pushes it by even bringing up EROI, a concept reserved for the fine de fleur of peakoil doomerism. Chapeau! The Economist concludes its breakthrough article by confessing that “There will surely be a significant impact if it (cheap oil) has gone for good.“. Asking what that ‘significant impact’ actually might look like is clearly a bridge too far for the intellectual giants at the Economist. But consequences like the end of the car and mass aviation, massive third world die-off, the end of industrial society and likely bloody resource wars, these are reserved for the next issue of the Economist. Five years after the fact. Where would we be without the Economist!