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The Breakup Of Spain

The Financial Times yesterday published an article “Euro crisis fuels Spanish separatism” and is discussed in the economicpolicyjournal, nationalreview and many other places. As a general rule, political entities are likely to face major upheavels and/or disintegration or other restructuring, once the ruling center has screwed up. Think of the Czar in Russia after the lost war against Germany in 1917, likewise the Ottoman empire, the abdication of the German emperor, the disintegration of Yugoslavia after the communist ideology evaporated, the breakaway of several Arab countries, like Egypt, from Pax Americana (Arab Spring), etc., etc.

As the FT writes: “The decision of Catalonia’s nationalist government to call a snap election in November – which in practice will amount to a referendum on independence – has opened the way to Catalan secession.“. It is unlikely that Northern Europe will continue to bail out southern Europe much longer, which could lead to the default of Spain. This would mean that the Spanish state has failed and that Madrid can no longer justify to be the determining factor. This is the chance of the more properous regions, like Catalonia, to break away from the center, which the Basques in their trail. Other candidates in Europe to follow on this path (ordered in decreasing likelyhood): Scotland, Flanders, Padania (Milan). And expect that at some point the USA will disintegrate as well.

[] – Spain risks break-up as Mariano Rajoy stirs Catalan fury, by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard.

Postscript November 26, 2012 – Catalonia election: Separatists win majority

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