The IEA recently presented its World Energy Outlook report for 2012. Kjell Aleklett, chairman of Peak-Oil club ASPO took a look at it and discussed the report in an article linked to below. Aleklett challenges the findings of the report and instead believes that “During the coming 50 years the production of oil will fall by half“. The IEA believes that global oil production will rise until 2035, with contributions from main players as follows, where the plusses (Iraq, Brasil, Kazakhstan, Saudi-Arabia, Canada, USA, Venezuela) dominate the minusses (Russia, China, UK, Norway):
The IEA believes that this will be the future of US oil and gas production, with large increases in production of unconventional oil and gas:
The prediction made by the IEA is that by 2020 the US will overtake Saudi-Arabia in oil production.
It is interesting the see the IEA’s development of predicting SA’s output for 2030 in time:
World Energy Outlook ……. 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Scenarios for 2030 (Mb/d)….22.5* 15.6 15.6 13.2 11.4
Implicit message from the IEA to the world: “do not take our predictions serious“. Message from us to the IEA: “we won’t“.