Energy Watch Group Updates Its 2008 Scenario
In contrast to the jubilant voices in the media about the coming ‘oil glut‘, the Berlin based Energy Watch Group offers a much more sobering view on the energy situation, see graph above, which shows the projected global total energy production (carbon + nuclear). Peak energy: 2018. From their conclusion (p131):
According to our study, coal and gas production will reach their respective production peaks around 2020. The combined peak of all fossil fuels will occur a few years earlier than the peaking of coal and gas and will almost coincide with the beginning decline of oil production. Therefore, the decline of oil production – which is expected to start soon – will lead to a rising energy gap which will become too large to be filled by natural gas and/or coal. Substituting oil by other fossil fuels will also not be possible in case gas and coal production would continue to grow at the present rate. Moreover, a further rise of gas and coal production soon will deplete these resources in a way similar to oil.
P.S. The report does not mention methane hydrates.
People behind the EWG:
Youtube text: Podcar City 6 in Berlin, Keynote address by Hans-Josef Fell, September 20, 2012 (uploaded 22 nov 2012)
Werner Zittel – Shale Gas: European Perspective
Youtube text: “Transitioning to Renewable Energy: Economic perspectives from Germany” – During his only seminar in North America, Dr. Harry Lehmann explains how a highly industrialized nation is making a full transition to renewable energy and how the German renewable energy sector has become one of Europe’s most important job-creation engines and a hub of economic innovation (uploaded 20 dec 2011).
Youtube text: eceee Policy Seminar, 21 November 2012. The Challenge of the World Energy Outlook. Title of presentation: Energy Efficiency Watch, analysis of MS ambitions. A few snapshots from the EEW survey. Speaker: Daniel Becker, Ecofys. This film is number 4 in a series of 6 recorded presentations and discussions (uploaded 9 dec 2012).
Youtube text: Worldwatch President Emeritus Christopher Flavin discusses contribution of energy efficiency policies and the use of renewable energy to reduce carbon emissions at the Energy and Environment Partnership with Central America (AEA/EEP)’s 21st Regional Forum in San José, Costa Rica (uploaded 21 mrt 2013).