DeepResource

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EIA Projections US Oil Production Until 2040 and Post Carbon Institute Review

EIA-Oil-Projection
Oil projections for US production from all sources according to the EIA.

EIA-LTO-Projection
Breakdown sources Light Tight Oil

EIA-PCI-Compare
‘Most likely’ production scenario according to the Post Carbon Institute compared with EIA findings.

The Post Carbon Institute critically examines the findings of the EIA report about “Light Tight Oil projections”.

[postcarbon.org] – Full report (315p): “Drilling Deeper” [pdf]

Editor: the days that we take everything the Post Carbon Institute says for granted are over. Three years ago we started this blog in the expectation that ‘peak oil’ would start to bite soon. It did not, at least not in terms of supply contraction. Ten years ago, after an imprudent diet of Richard Heinberg literature we proclaimed to everybody who wanted to hear that ‘in ten years time Joe Sickpack would not drive a car any longer’. That was obviously wrong. Although there are signs that we approaching ‘peak car’ in terms of car ownership and miles driven, at least in the West (young westerners no longer have car ownership as a high priority), many roads are still congested. It is obvious that the practice of fracking does indeed provide a substantial ‘delay of execution’ of peak oil and hence of the old industrial society with at least a decade. But there are other reasons why peak oil watching and barrel counting has become less prominent on our agenda. It seems that peak oil is not going to be the ‘next big thing’ in the coming years. Financial and geopolitical developments are more interesting. Interesting as in catastrophic.

  • Countdown towards US financial collapse, hand in hand with the ‘dedollarization’ of the world
  • Possibility of US elites attempting the ‘flight forward’ into a police state and/or WW3 in order to stay in power
  • The relentless rise of China
  • The possibility that France could be the first to break the western status quo and move towards Russia
  • On a positive note, all the technological preconditions for a ‘solar economy’ are already fulfilled. From now on it is a matter of investment decisions. Peak oil, yawn.
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