Renewable share electricity production:
| Country | % |
|---|---|
| Scotland | 74 |
| Portugal | 55 |
| Spain | 46 |
| Denmark | 43 |
| Germany | 42 |
| China | 38 |
| EU | 32 |
| UK | 30 |
| Italy | 20 |
| USA | 15 |
Note that northern countries with low population density and high mountains and hence high proportion of hydro-power, like Norway, Sweden and Canada, have even higher shares. But we are for the moment more interested in those countries with high shares of wind and solar.
[source]
2018 was an extremely good year for the Dutch economy with nearly 3% growth. Yet the total energy consumption declined with 1.5%. Total share fossil fuel decreased with 2%.
Natural gas: 40%
Oil: 40%
Coal: 11%
The rest is renewables, nuclear, biomass, electricity import. Holland is (not yet) a big player in renewable energy.
The most important message is, that regardless of the energy source, it is possible to have substantial economic growth and still use less energy.
[nu.nl] – Energieverbruik gedaald in 2018, vooral minder steenkool verbruikt
From 40 GW in 2010 to 640 GW in 2020.
[energiebusiness.nl] – The Solar Future: einde aan dalende elektriciteitsprijzen
[source] An area in the Sahara with the size of Bulgaria, covered with solar panels and all the world’s present day energy needs would be covered.
The Sahara is associated with strong solar irradiation. How much Sahara surface area would be required to power the entire world with pv-solar? Mehran Moalem, PhD, UC Berkeley, Professor, expert on Nuclear Materials and Nuclear Fuel Cycle, did the calculation.
How much energy is the world consuming anyway?
The total world energy usage (coal+oil+hydroelectric+nuclear+renewable) in 2015 was 13,000 Million Ton Oil Equivalent (13,000 MTOE) – see World Energy Consumption & Stats. This translates to 17.3 TW continuous power.
OK, so how much of the Sahara would be required to generate these 17.3 TW? Surprisingly little:
Now, if we cover an area of the Earth 335 kilometers by 335 kilometers with solar panels, even with moderate efficiencies achievable easily today, it will provide more than 17,4 TW power. This area is 43,000 square miles.
For Europeans, that’s 111,370 km2 or relatively small European countries like Bulgaria, Iceland or Greece. For Americans, think Tennessee or Virginia.
[forbes.com] – We Could Power The Entire World By Harnessing Solar Energy From 1% Of The Sahara
[wikipedia.org] – List of countries and dependencies by area
Note that the European installed base grew from 45 GW in 2010 towards 120 GW in 2017. That’s 85 GW in 7 years. Linear extrapolation to 2030 would imply an extra 134 GW. In reality it could be (much) more as the price of solar panels is expected to further reduce significantly, think $100/m2 soon. Let’s say 300 GW nameplate in total in 2030, which would be equivalent to 30 GW average power 24/7/365 (see explanation of “nameplate power” in the previous post). From this it is obvious that wind power will be dominant in Europe for years to come.
[jrc.ec.europa.eu] – EU PV Status Report 2017
Energy crisis… what energy crisis?
[iea.org] – Key World Energy Statistics
Net electricity generation, EU-28, 1990-2015 (TWh)
A annual electricity generation of 3000 TWh is equivalent of 342 GW continuous average power.
Breakdown of electricity production by source and European country, 2016 (in %)
[ec.europa.eu] – Electricity production, consumption and market overview
[entsoe.eu] – Electricity in Europe 2015
[iea.org] – Coal falls as gas rises: World energy balances in 2016
[twitter.com] – Global coal production fell significantly in 2016
Hydro-power is still more than 50% of all installed renewable electricity.
[iea.org] – Renewables information: Overview 2017
Is the world on track to meet the 2025 interim climate change targets?
Go to the original IEA tracker here for the details:
[iea.org] – Clean Energy Tracker 2017
[iea.org] – World Energy Investment 2017
[iea.org] – World Energy Investment 2017, executive summary, pdf 12p
[source]
Global data resource with more than 1,000 offshore locations that could be used for building wind farms. The data set is ordered after average wind speed. Every location links to information about the status of the wind farm, if any.
Spoiler: best location is Taiwan Strait.
[4coffshore.com] – Global Offshore Wind Speeds Rankings
Gemini, that’s the two tiny trapezoids at the top of the map, measuring together merely 68 km2. In the Dutch part of the North Sea there is enough space for many, many Gemini’s more, in theory 57,000/68=838 more or 503 GW nameplate power, that could not only easily provide the Dutch electricity needs for 100% (Dutch average electricity consumption is 12.7 GW), but additionally could turn the Netherlands in a significant electricity exporter to the rest of the EU. Average EU electricity consumption 342 GW. Note that the Dutch part is only 25% of the 200,000 km2 North Sea that cold be utilized for fixed (monopile-based) wind turbines, amounting to, in theory, 2,000 GW nameplate wind power. If you divide that number by two to account for variability and maintenance, you arrive at 1,000 GW, which is still three times the EU current electricity consumption. Note that there is also the Irish Sea and Baltic with plenty of opportunity.
Dutch part Continental Shelf of the North Sea, with 57,000 km2 larger than the Netherlands itself (41,543 km2).
Live data from the with 600 MW (currently) 2nd largest offshore wind farm in the world: Gemini in the Dutch part of the North Sea.
[livemegawatt.com] – Click this link for live data
[youtube.com] – Gemini Windpark animation
[wikipedia.com] – Gemini Wind Farm
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