The Guardian reports that the International Energy Agency (IEA) has backpedaled on its earlier claims (2012) that the US would surpass Saudi-Arabia as the largest oil producer by 2020 and would become a net exporter by 2030. Now the IEA says that US tight oil production will peak in 2020 and decline after 2025. Now IEA chief economist Fatih Birol says: “In Europe we are facing the risk of the lights going off. This is not a joke.“
Our take: we are not surprised, otherwise we would not run this blog. The ‘professional energy watchers’ at the IEA are merely over-paid well-fare bums. How could these people be mistaken so much and radically change their minds in less than 2 years? As Richard Heinberg says: leave fossil fuel before fossil fuel leaves us!
[theguardian.com] – US shale boom is over, energy revolution needed to avert blackouts
[telegraph.co.uk] – Europe at risk of blackouts, warns IEA
[csmonitor.com] – IEA chief: Only a decade left in US shale oil boom
The IEA recently presented its World Energy Outlook report for 2012. Kjell Aleklett, chairman of Peak-Oil club ASPO took a look at it and discussed the report in an article linked to below. Aleklett challenges the findings of the report and instead believes that “During the coming 50 years the production of oil will fall by half“. The IEA believes that global oil production will rise until 2035, with contributions from main players as follows, where the plusses (Iraq, Brasil, Kazakhstan, Saudi-Arabia, Canada, USA, Venezuela) dominate the minusses (Russia, China, UK, Norway):
The IEA believes that this will be the future of US oil and gas production, with large increases in production of unconventional oil and gas:
The prediction made by the IEA is that by 2020 the US will overtake Saudi-Arabia in oil production.
It is interesting the see the IEA’s development of predicting SA’s output for 2030 in time:
World Energy Outlook ……. 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Scenarios for 2030 (Mb/d)….22.5* 15.6 15.6 13.2 11.4
Implicit message from the IEA to the world: “do not take our predictions serious“. Message from us to the IEA: “we won’t“.
From the cover: Industry and government decision makers and others with a stake in the energy sector all need WEO-2012. It presents authoritative projections of energy trends through to 2035 and insights into what they mean for energy security, environmental sustainability and economic development. Oil, coal, natural gas, renewables and nuclear power are all covered, together with an update on climate change issues. Global energy demand, production, trade, investment and carbon-dioxide emissions are broken down by region or country, by fuel and by sector.
[iea.org – pdf] – Executive summary (12 p.)
[rtcc.org] – One page summary. Interesting factoid: fossil fuel subsidies in 2011, jumped by almost 30% to $523 billion. That’s roughly 523 GW wordt of installed wind energy or 0.5 TW. Total world energy consumption is 200 TW.