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Oil Will Decline Shortly After 2015

Olivier Rech worked for the International Energy Agency from 2006 to 2009. The IEA is often criticized for too optimistic forecasts concerning oil production levels. Now that Rech no longer works for that organization his forecasts have become much more pessimistic. He expects stronger tensions as of 2013, and an inevitable overall decline of oil production “somewhere between 2015 and 2020”. Summary of his views: non-OPEC 40 mbd (58% production, with 23% reserves), OPEC (42%, 77%). Annual decline non-OPEC 1-2 mbd. Existing production declines 5%/year. OPEC situation less clear. New offshore projects near Brazil, Ghana and Guyana. Gulf of Mexico far from depleted. Arctic uncertain, will take another decade for production from that region. Expects global peak production to remain below 95 mbd for conventional and unconventional oil combined. Oil production on a plateau of 82 mbd since 2005. Including biofuels and coal-to-liquid, that’s 88 mbd for all liquid fuels. According to Rech this will be about the maximum. Expects tensions between 2013-2015 and decline to start between 2015-2020, but it will not be rapid.


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