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Archive for the category “Netherlands”

The Netherlands is Placing its Bets on the Hydrogen Economy

Natural gas power plant Eemshaven. One of the blocks is retrofitted for hydrogen.

The Netherlands are “plat als een dubbeltje” (flat as a dime) and as such pumped hydro storage solutions are virtually impossible. The people behind the recent Climate Accord, that is from the industry to environmentalist groups, see hydrogen as the key of the energy transition. Current annual hydrogen production (from natural gas) is 800,000 ton, mostly for agriculture and refineries. The goal is “green hydrogen”, produced from solar and wind, without CO2 as a byproduct. Hydrogen is needed for several purposes: as storage and for certain aspects of industrial society that can’t be covered with electricity alone. Batteries alone are no solution. For the storage of 2000 kWh you would need 3 sea containers per household at the cost of 40,000 euro/year. You can store the same 2000 kWh worth of energy in a hydrogen container of merely 1 m3. And yes, there are considerable conversion losses from electricity –> H2 –> electricity, but hydrogen can be exported via existing but retrofitted natural gas networks, where building new cables would be 100-200 times more expensive.

Dutch industry is already busy with laying the foundations of a hydrogen economy. In the northern Groningen province, GasUnie is developing a small factory where solar electricity is converted in hydrogen (“power-to-gas”). The best location for large scale hydrogen factories is probably at sea, near the wind parks. Fortunately there is an enormous pipeline infrastructure in the North Sea, a left over of the gas and oil age, that can be reused for hydrogen. Large scale hydrogen production won’t happen before 2030, simply because there is yet not enough wind power generated that can’t be used immediately. 3,000 turbines are seen as a critical number from where storage would become necessary.

Currently Holland is competing with post-Fukushima Japan to be the owner of the first hydrogen economy.

[volkskrant.nl] – Ineens lijkt waterstof het antwoord op alle energieproblemen

[deepresource] – Nederlandse Regering Presenteert Klimaatakkoord
[deepresource] – First Climate Neutral Power Station in The Netherlands
[deepresource] – Prof. Ad van Wijk (#1 Dutch hydrogen guru)
[noordelijkeinnovationboard.nl] – The Green Hydrogen Economy in the Northern Netherlands (English pdf, 51p)
[ammoniaindustry.com] – A Roadmap for The Green Hydrogen Economy in the Northern Netherlands

The report contains significant financial analysis on how green hydrogen can be produced at industrial scale, either from biomass gasification or water electrolysis, at a cost of EUR 2.20 to 2.30 per kg.

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Nederland Waterstofland

Retrospect conference organized by Dutch employers’ organizations VNO-NCW and MKB on the topic of “The Netherlands Hydrogen Country”.

[vno-ncw.nl] – Terugblik conferentie Nederland Waterstofland

National hydrogen guru prof. Ad van Wijk is baking an egg on hydrogen.

Nederlandse Regering Presenteert Klimaatakkoord

Today the Dutch government presented its “klimaatakkoord”, a detailed energy strategy for the coming three decades. Core points:

– 49% less CO2 emissions in 2030 as compared to 1990, more than the 40% required by EU regulation
– Lower taxes on electricity and higher taxes on natural gas to encourage the transition
– 11.5 GW North-Sea wind by 2030
– 75 GW North-Sea wind by 2050
– Required extra investment: 15-20 billion euro
– CO2 sequestration is an option
– 3-4 GW hydrogen production by 2030
– By 2030 84 billion kWh needs to be renewable, 5 times the 2018 amount. 49 billion Kwh will be from offshore wind
– 50% of the renewable energy capacity needs to be owned by local parties, like private households
– Demand management will be introduced
– Intermittent supply is admittedly “a problem”, c.q. “challenge”
– Traffic becomes “green”
– Most of the Dutch part of the North-Sea will be filled with turbines; fishing will be impossible for large ships.

The Dutch government exploited its huge natural gas reserves to the max in order to avoid being stuck with stranded assets, but now that due to soil subsidence further large scale extraction is no longer possible, the government is radically changing course and has the ambition to advance from being Europe’s rear light in all things renewable energy into becoming a front-bencher. The government can build on deep acceptance within Dutch society for the expensive transition that lies ahead.

[klimaatakkoord.nl] – Official project site
[klimaatakkoord.nl] – Official detailed report for download (pdf p89)
[nos.nl] – Hoofdlijnen Klimaatakkoord
[vk.nl] – Zo moet Nederland er op energiegebied over twaalf jaar uitzien
[smart-port.nl] – Wind at Sea
[trouw.nl] – Wie krijgt straks de rekening van het Klimaatakkoord?

[nu.nl] – Dit betekent het klimaatakkoord voor je woning

In de komende drie jaar worden 102.500 bestaande corporatiewoningen van het gas afgesloten… Energie moeten we dus uit andere bronnen gaan halen. Nieuwbouwwoningen worden sinds 1 juli niet meer aangesloten op het gasnetwerk… Dat betekent niet dat je als huiseigenaar zelf verantwoordelijk bent voor het verzinnen van de beste aanpak. In het akkoord staat dat gemeenten in Nederland eind 2021 hun visie op deze transitie moeten vaststellen. Daar moet in staan welke wijken wanneer worden aangepast. Woningen worden wijk voor wijk verduurzaamd. Dat kan met warmtenetten, helemaal elektrisch, met warmtepompen of met duurzaam gas. Gemeenten moeten samen met bewoners en gebouweigenaren per wijk de beste oplossingen bepalen. Het isoleren van je woning wordt in 2030 verplicht. Je gemeente vertelt je vanzelf welke maatregelen er in jouw wijk worden genomen… In het akkoord wordt een nieuw soort lening omschreven: de gebouwgebonden financiering. Daarmee wordt het voor huizenbezitters eenvoudiger om ook maatregelen te nemen. De lening is gekoppeld aan het huis en niet aan de eigenaar. De kosten van de lening mogen niet hoger uitvallen dan wat de verlaging van de energierekening oplevert. De looptijd van een lening wordt dertig jaar en gaat dus over van bewoner op bewoner. Ook krijgen huizenkopers bij elke aankoop een aanbod om woningen te isoleren met financieringsmogelijkheden… De subsidie op zonnepanelen is al stopgezet, maar de overheid geeft nog steeds subsidie op de aanschaf van zonneboilers, warmtepompen, pelletkachels en biomassaketels.

[energiegids.nl] – Voorstel Klimaatakkoord gepresenteerd

[eufin.nl] – De verbouwing van Nederland beginnen

Al ruim voor 2030 verduurzamen we ieder jaar 200.000 woningen. Daarmee reduceren we onze CO2-uitstoot enorm. Een CO2-neutrale gebouwde omgeving in 2050 is geen utopie, het kan echt… De komende jaren zetten we bovendien alles op alles om meer technici op te leiden voor de energietransitie… Het Klimaatakkoord schrijft het huidige aardgasnetwerk nog niet af. Daarmee blijft de mogelijkheid open in de toekomst gebruik te maken van duurzaam gas. Het huidige gasnetwerk is daarvoor uitermate geschikt. In het akkoord is op aandringen van UNETO-VNI opgenomen dat er demonstratieprojecten komen voor duurzaam gas en waterstof. De installateurskoepel verwacht dat dit een belangrijke bijdrage gaat leveren aan de energietransitie. Woningen zullen worden verwarmd door warmtenetten en collectieve of individuele (hybride) warmtepompen.

[engineersonline.nl] – Industrie gaat CO2 ondergronds opslaan

De industrie moet inzetten op efficiëntere processen en efficiënt gebruik van warmte. Schone stroom vervangt op termijn fossiele brandstof en grondstoffen worden hergebruikt of vervangen door duurzame grondstoffen. Omdat deze omschakeling tijd en geld kost, wordt eerst gestart met de ondergrondse opslag van CO2… Ondergrondse opslag van CO2 is nodig om in 2030 genoeg CO2 uit de lucht te houden… Arbeidsmarkt en scholing zijn sterk bepalend voor het tempo van de energietransitie en het draagvlak daarvoor. Om de klimaatdoelstellingen mogelijk te maken zijn tienduizenden extra vakkrachten nodig, die nu al niet gemakkelijk te vinden zijn. “Het is nu aan het kabinet en de Tweede Kamer om met richtinggevende keuzes te komen”, zegt voorzitter van het Klimaatberaad Ed Nijpels. “Daarna kunnen de partijen de hoofdlijnen uitwerken in concrete en bindende afspraken. Als het tempo erin blijft, ligt er eind dit jaar een akkoord met handtekeningen… Het is de bedoeling dat de zeven miljoen huizen en miljoen gebouwen in Nederland met duurzame warmte worden verwarmd. Hiervoor wordt een wijkgerichte benadering gehanteerd. Om het aanbod van duurzame warmte te vergroten, wordt geothermie fors opgeschaald. De ambitie is een uitbreiding van 3 petajoule naar 50 PJ in 2030 en meer dan 200 PJ in 2050.

Waterbeheerders willen werk maken van aquathermie, het gebruik van koude en warmte uit afval- en oppervlaktewater. Zij verwachten 80 tot 120 PJ in 2050 te kunnen realiseren. Deze energiebron is relatief nieuw, waardoor nog veel ervaring nodig is. Daarom wordt voorgesteld om vanaf 2019 een driejarig programma voor aquathermie uit te voeren. Tevens wordt aquathermie onderdeel van een aantal proeftuinen in het kader van het 100-wijken programma, dat is bedoeld om jaarlijks 30.000 tot 50.000 bestaande woningen aardgasvrij te maken voor het eind van de kabinetsperiode…

Waterstof wordt aangeduid als een sectoroverstijgende hoofdlijn. De sectortafels voor elektriciteit en industrie stellen een programmatische aanpak voor. Hierin worden de investeringskosten van elektrolyse versneld verminderd, zodat groene waterstof die is opgewekt uit duurzame bronnen (wind en zon) een goede rol in de toekomst kan spelen. De ambitie is om 3 à 4 gigawatt aan groene waterstof in 2030 te produceren.”

[h2owaternetwerk.nl] – Stevige Bijdrage van Aquathermie en Groene Waterstof

Het Voorstel voor hoofdlijnen van het Klimaatakkoord zoals het document officieel heet, is opgesteld door meer dan honderd maatschappelijke partijen. Zij hebben vier maanden lang gediscussieerd aan vijf sectortafels: elektriciteit, gebouwde omgeving, industrie, landbouw & landgebruik en mobiliteit. De organisaties dragen de bouwstenen aan voor hoe Nederland de doelen in het Klimaatakkoord van Parijs kan halen.

[twitter.com] – Zeewier en warmtepomp: deze bedrijven profiteren van Klimaatakkoord
[ad.nl] – Windmolen wordt het nieuwe gas
[gemeente.nu] – Huiver voor ‘energiearmoede’ door klimaatakkoord
[stadszaken.nl] – Dit moeten stadsverbeteraars weten over het Klimaatakkoord
[consumentenbond.nl] – Klimaatakkoord: nog veel losse eindjes
[nu.nl] – Dit betekent het klimaatakkoord voor je woning


Chairman Dutch building industry Maxime Verhagen expresses his support for the Klimaatakkoord


Major Dutch banks have announced to support the transition by providing long-term loans (think 30 years or even intergenerational) to make houses more sustainable (isolation, heat pumps, solar panels). After 2030 taking up loans for this purpose could become obligatory.

Ecovat Seasonal Heat Storage

Storage temperatures up to 93 degrees Celsius and more than 90% storage energy efficiency over 6 months. Scale: 200-1000 houses.

[ecovat.eu] – Ecovat company site
[dgem.nl] – Ecovat Smart Thermal Energy Storage
[ecovat.eu] – Production line impressions

Read more…

Groningen Wants to Become the Dutch Hydrogen Province

Why Groningen? Prof. van Wijk and premier hydrogen evangelist in the Netherlands sums it up:

1. Paris Accords. Not specific for Groningen, but important stimulus.
2. Groningen produced natural gas for decades. The expertise and infrastructure for a replacement is there.
3. There is a lot of renewable electricity on offer from Norway and from Danish, German and Dutch offshore wind parks.
4. There is a lot of chemical industry already present that could work with hydrogen.

The goal is to produce 270,000 tons of hydrogen annually, in order to bring down per kilo hydrogen prices to 2-3 euro.

[nltimes.nl] – Groningen to Test Netherlands’ First Hydrogen Train
[profadvanwijk.com] – The Green Hydrogen Economy in the Northern Netherlands
[northerntimes.nl] – Groningen Seaports investing in green hydrogen
[deepresource] – Prof. Ad van Wijk
[deepresource] – Price of Hydrogen Production via Electrolysis
[deepresource] – Cost Hydrogen From Renewable Energy

Dockwise Used to Transport Windfarm Jackets From Gulf

Offshore wind moving into the area formerly reserved for giant oil platforms only. The world’s largest heavy lifting vessel Dockwise Vanguard of the Dutch based Boskalis was used to transport 36 jackets from Lamprell’s construction yard in Jebel Ali to Vlissingen, from where they will eventually be installed in the 714 MW East-Anglia ONE offshore wind farm. Partners: ScottishPower Renewables (developer), Boskalis & van Oord (logistics), Lamprell (jackets), Siemens (102 x 7 MW turbines + rotor blades).

[offshorewind.biz] – Lamprell Hires Dockwise to Transport East Anglia ONE Jackets
[offshorewind.biz] – First Lamprell-Produced EA1 Jackets Arrive in Vlissingen
[wikipedia.org] – East Anglia Array

LightYear Solar Car – Update

Lightyear One is a 5 student initiative, a follow-up of the successful participation’s of the Solar Team Eindhoven at the World Solar Challenge in Australia in 2013, 2015 and 2017 (three times a win). Prototype completed by 2019. 23 potential buyers. Price tag: 119,000 euro ex BTW. The Lightyear One Car will by on the road by 2020. The car has 4 motors, one in each wheel. In April the initiative managed to collect 5 million euro investment money, which suffices to complete the prototype. The hope is to sell 3,000 cars eventually.

[omroepbrabant.nl] – De Lightyear One… rijdt in 2020 over de Brabantse wegen
[lightyear.one] – Official project site
[automotivecampus.com] – Lightyear groeit snel
[pcmweb.nl] – Lightyear One: Elektrische auto op zonnepanelen
[linkmagazine.nl] – Sioux koopt Lightyear One ‘Signature Edition’
[ed.nl] – Lightyear al naar Automotive Campus Helmond

Read more…

Gravitricity

Dutch-British project involving storing/retrieving electricity by lifting/sinking large weights in a mine shaft (59,000 of those in the UK alone). Claim made by startup “Gravitricity”: power up to 20 MW per installation, life span ±50 year and a storage efficiency of 80 à 90%.

[wattisduurzaam.nl] – Nederlands-Brits team bouwt mijnschacht om tot energieopslag
[euanmearns.com] – Short-term energy storage with “Gravitricity” – iron versus ion
[physics.stackexchange.com] – Why don’t we use weights to store energy?

Two-Blade Wind Turbines Are Back, This Time Offshore

Why three blades if two blades work as well? It is all the fault of 1970s Danish garage pioneers, who insisted there needed to be three blades. NASA did experiment at the same time with 2-blades (WTS-4), but that project was cancelled under Reagan, who decided that oil was American, not wind. And now we are stuck with three blades.

Or are we? The originally Dutch company Sea Wind Technology is betting on two-blades, especially for offshore, with higher wind speeds (higher loads) and more difficult installation.

Advantages two blades:

– simpler design
– less material (50% less weight, no heavy tower/monopiles necessary)
– easier offshore transportation and mounting (just pile them up)
– simpler installation vessels, flat barges suffice
– more rotor flexibility, 2 degrees of freedom: rotating and teetering, reducing load
– 2% less electricity gain, but offset by much lower installation and operational cost
– Levelized cost (LCOE) reduction: 50%

[seawindtechnology.com] – Company site
[linkedin.com] – Two-bladed offshore turbines could cut the cost of energy by 50%
[linkedin.com] – Why two blades are better than three for floating wind turbines
[crunchbase.com] – Seawind Ocean Technology
[windpowermonthly.com] – Are three blades really better than two? (2011)
[interestingengineering.com] – The Scientific Reason Why Wind Turbines Have 3 Blades

Offshore wind hub Eemshaven in the Netherlands. After [1:30] you see an (onshore) two-bladed windturbine in operation.

[gic.nl] – Nieuw type windmolen met slechts twee wieken getest in Eemshaven

Read more…

Boskalis Monopile Scour Protection

[wikipedia.org] – Boskalis

[source]

Noah Recyclable Car

Students of the Technical University of Eindhoven in the Netherlands have developed a “100% recyclable car”.

Should be on the road by the end of 2018.

Made from flax fiber and sugar.
Elektromotor 15 kW, 6 x 10 kg batteries.
Speed 100 kmh
Range 240 km
Not suitable for a first date.

[tuecomotive.nl] – Official site
[cursor.tue.nl] – TU/ecomotive leaves Eco-marathon behind with ‘circular’ Noah
[spiegel.de] – Dieses Auto soll sich komplett recyceln lassen

Geothermal Energy in the Netherlands

[Source]

[rvo.nl] – Dutch government overview of geothermal projects in the Netherlands
[wikipedia.org] – Geothermal Energy

Cleaning the Oceans from Plastic

Swiss, Dutch and American initiatives to clean up the world’s oceans from plastic, mainly originating from Asian rivers.

[theseacleaners.org] – SeaCleaners
[wikipedia.org] – Ocean Cleanup
[theoceancleanup.com] – Ocean Cleanup
[dw.com] – Almost all plastic in the ocean comes from just 10 rivers

Netherlands – Natural Gas Connections Prohibited in Newly Built Homes

[officielebekendmakingen.nl] – Official Dutch government announcement that as of July 1, 2018, it is forbidden to connect newly built homes to the national natural gas grid.

[volkskrant.nl] – Dutch national newspaper is afraid that the government is pushing too hard with the transition and is running the risk of putting too much burden on society. Heat pumps (6-20k) and solar panels (5k) don’t come cheap as compared to gas heating (2k).

N.B. the solution could be public/private financing/renting schemes over 10-30 years. Heat pumps earn themselves back in 7-14 years. Solar panels in 6-9 years.

Dutch Company TenneT Plans 30 GW Offshore Wind Park

Dutch grid company TenneT is working on a serious plan to build a giant wind park of 30 GW in the middle of the North Sea, on the Dogger Bank, around a to-be-build artificial energy island (€1.5 billion), that is supposed to work as a power hub to distribute wind power to the surrounding countries Holland, Britain, Norway, Denmark and Germany. The island could be completed as early as 2027. The wind park will dwarf anything we have seen so far in the realm of offshore wind (think 630 MW).

[theguardian.com] – Is this the future? Dutch plan vast windfarm island in North Sea
[businessinsider.com] – The Dutch plan to build the world’s biggest wind farm
[wikipedia.org] – Dogger Bank

Read more…

“Coming 10-15 Years Offshore Wind Will Be Booming”

Key figures power production The Netherlands

Average power consumption: 13 GW
Total power capacity: 29 GW
Size coming generation turbines: 8 MW nameplate power
North offshore capacity factor: 50% nameplate power

In other words: the Netherlands needs to install 13 GW / 8 MW / 0.50 = 3250 offshore 8 MW wind towers.
Modern jack-up vessels like the Aeolus (see video below) can install a single wind tower per 24h.
In other words, the energy transition of the Netherlands can in theory be accomplished within 10 years with a single jack-up ship. Dutch companies have several of these ships operational.

The bottle neck is not installing the monopiles but storing the generated wind power and convert it into H2 or NH3.

[offshorewind.biz] – Sif Gathers Steam in 2017

De Prijs van een Warmtepomp

[source] Lucht-water warmtepomp

Type warmtepomp Gemiddelde kostprijs [euro]
grond-water 10-25k
water-water 15k +
lucht-lucht 4-7k
lucht-water 4-7k
hybride 5-7k

[warmtepomp-info.nl] – Kosten Warmtepomp
[groenehoedduurzaam.nl] – Alpha Innotec SW-42 warmtepomp, 4 kW (7.345,- incl BTW)

Ground Drilling Vertical Heat Exchanger for Heat Pump

Realistic price calculation:

Freestanding house: 750 m3
Two-three drilled wells of 85 meter each in the garden, 6 meter apart
Temperature cold side: 12 degrees centigrade
Project size: two men, one day
Energy saving: up to 70%

[aardwarmtepompen.be] – Average price tag:

Average residence, 8 kW heat loss and average geology, boiler 300 liter en floor heating 160 m2
Average space heating cost with natural gas for Dutch house-hold: 1,000 euro.

All-in prices for single household:

Soil-water heat pump with vertical heat exchangers: 20000 € excl. VAT
Soil-water heat pump with horizontal heat exchangers: 17000 € excl. VAT
Air-water heat pump: 14000 € excl. VAT
Subsidy: 1600 euro in 2018

Prices likely come down if you increase project scale. New homes will have no choice as proposed new regulation will forbid a natural gas connection for new-build homes. For the typical Dutch terraced houses, investment costs are lower.

[eigenhuis.nl] – In the Netherlands there are 7 million households. Of these 160,000 do own a heat pump. Currently this number increases with 20,000 per year. As per 2021 this number will increase as all new buildings by then will be deprived of a connection to the existing natural gas grid.

Kijkje in een Windmolen

Dutch Energy Figures

Dutch electricity supply. Currently almost all electricity consumed is produced in the Netherlands. The plan in accordance with the EU is to replace almost all fossil generated electricity by renewable power by 2050 at the latest.

Electricity consumption: 120 billion kWh/year
Electricity per capita: 7085 kWh/year
Total installed capacity: 31.5 GW
Average consumption: 13.7 GW
Total connections: 8 million

Capacity factor latest North Sea wind farms: 50%
Assuming no storage losses then you would need 27.4 GW offshore nameplate wind power to meet current Dutch electricity demand levels. By 2023 4.5 GW are expected to be installed in the North Sea. Already allocated but not all covered with tenders yet are:

Borssele: 2064 MW
Hollandse Kust: 7350 MW
IJmuiden Ver: 7020 MW
Waddeneilanden: 1200 MW
Total: 17.5 GW

No fixed time table for these 17.5 GW exist, but if the first 4.5 GW are realized in 2023, you can expect that new capacity will be built with existing offshore production capacity in at least the same pace or higher. Since we already have 1 GW installed, the remaining 4.5-1=3.5 GW would take 5-6 years or 640 MW/year. The remaining 17.5-4.5=13 GW would require an additional 13/0.64=20 years or 2043 with existing installation capacity. In reality the offshore wind industry is rapidly growing and the targeted 17.5 GW will be achieved earlier, probably much earlier. Expect that by 2050 the Netherlands will enjoy the renewable energy consumption enabling them to continue the current affluence levels and will have created new large wealth creating industries in the energy and storage sector. Note that these figures do not include existing or future wind and solar capacity onshore.

After that the sky is the limit because the offshore industry could sell a lot of electricity or its hydrogen derivative abroad. Expect NW-European offshore wind industry like Vestas, Orsted (Dong), Siemens, SiF, Van Oord and many others to take over from big oil names like Gazprom, Exxon, Texaco, BP, Shell and many others. Or as president Gorbachev uses to say: He who comes too late is punished by life.

The good news is that in 2018 corporations are competing to develop offshore wind parks without a dime of subsidy, neither for the infrastructure nor for the kWh’s brought onshore. Paying market prices for kWh’s brought onshore is enough for them to be profitable. All the government has to do is allocate offshore locations and pay for the cables.

[energywatch.eu] – Statoil submits bid in Dutch zero-subsidy tender
[renewablesnow.com] – Vattenfall to bid in Dutch subsidy-free offshore wind tender

The only remaining challenge is storage, a considerable one, but manageable. It is likely that hydrogen from electrolysis is going to play a big role here.

17.5 GW nameplate power would mean 8.8 GW continuously or 64% or 2017 electricity demand. That would be enough to uphold a reasonable affluent society. It would be like living in 1980, albeit with electricity consuming devices (lights, television, fridges) that are far more energy efficient. But it is far more likely that by 2050 more than the current 13.7 GW average consumption will be brought onshore, providing electricity for trains and e-vehicles as well. The Dutch train system is already fully covered by wind. And here a calculation that you need merely 222 wind turbines of 6 MW each to power the entire Dutch personal car fleet.

According to new legislation, every home in the Netherlands needs to be energy neutral by 2030. No natural gas connection will be guaranteed for new homes. This requires solar panels, thermal collectors, heat pumps and thorough thermal insulation measures. It is ambitious but feasible.

[cbs.nl] – 2015-elektriciteit-in-nederland
[energynumbers.info] – Capacity factors Danish offshore wind farms
[noordzeeloket.nl] – Dutch plans North Sea Wind (map)
[rijksoverheid.nl] – Bedrijfsleven bereid zonder subsidie windpark op zee te bouwen

P.S. the goal of the Dutch government is to have 6 GW wind power installed onshore by 2020.

Sites with lower capacity factors may be deemed feasible for wind farms, for example the onshore 1 GW Fosen Vind which as of 2017 is under construction in Norway has a projected capacity factor of 39%. Certain onshore wind farms can reach capacity factors of over 60%, for example the 44 MW Eolo plant in Nicaragua had a net generation of 232.132 GWh in 2015, equivalent to a capacity factor of 60.2%, while U.S. annual capacity factors from 2013 through 2016 range from 32.2% to 34.7%.

Let’s assume a capacity factor of 50%, that would mean that another 3 GW continuously (including not yet installed storage) are added to the mix as early as 2020.

[deondernemer.nl] – Zo waait de wind in ondernemersland
[wikipedia.org] – Capacity factor

And then there is solar:

[hollandsolar.nl] – Marktontwikkeling zonnestroom
[goedkopeenergieengas.nl] – Opbrengst zonne-energie groeit met 40 procent

Summary: by the end of 2016 there was 2.0 GW peak Watt PV-solar installed, which translates in 800 MW power continuously. By the end of 2017 the installed power had increased with 40%. So we can assume 1.1 GW of PV-solar power. The government wants solar panels on every suitable roof and the public is picking up the signal. In every street there are at l east a few houses that have panels on the roof, which will impose the question on the laggards: “when us?”, just like with owning a car or having an internet connection. Nobody wants to stay behind and everybody wants to be “green”. One of the largest energy providers in the Netherlands Eneco believes that as early as 2030, 70% of renewable electricity can be covered by renewables.

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