Share Electricity 20% Primary Energy

Zelfs in een extreem jaar als 2022 is het aandeel elektriciteit in de finale NL energievraag gelijk aan 20%. #vuistregel #grafiekvandedag pic.twitter.com/r8Rj1ghkHO

— Martien Visser (@BM_Visser) August 4, 2022

As a rule of thumb, the electricity share within total primary energy is 20% and remarkable constant. The figure applies to the Netherlands, but won’t be that much different for other European nations. It also shows the enormous task ahead of decarbonizing the economy.

The sad news is that in the light of recent geopolitical developments, combined with weak European leadership, that blindly follows the US and its imperial adventures, and lets itself being separated from Russia and its fossil fuel reserves, a smooth energy transition becomes ever less likely and that an enormous decline in wealth is to be expected for Europeans, most tangible in receding automobility, decaying industrial activities and cold homes in the winter. One can be really concerned about the political stability within the EU, especially in the country hardest hit: Germany.

[focus.de] – Ohne Putins Gas droht der deutschen Industrie der Kollaps

[aa.com.tr] – Putin relays to Schroeder feasibility of activating Nord Stream 2 pipeline

Russian President Vladimir Putin told Former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder that the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline could be activated if necessary, Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitriy Peskov confirmed Wednesday.

This is exactly what needs to happen. We need to distance ourselves from the US and strike a deal with Russia and China. Europe must accept the split of Ukraine in a Russian and EU-part. We must either leave NATO or at least tell the US to remove its bases from European soil and tell them that the “US-led West” (US empire) is over. 440 million European don’t need “protection”, delivered by 330 million Americans against 140 million Russians. The opportunity to defect from the US will arise at the very moment China and US clash over Taiwan and fight for planetary pole position. The EU must merge with Russia and become the world’s #1 superpower.

China-EU – Energy & Emissions Comparisson

China & EU27: ruim 3x meer inwoners; bijna 2,5x meer energieverbruik; en bijna 4x meer CO2.
NB: in China worden veel spullen voor de EU gemaakt.#grafiekvandedag pic.twitter.com/MgWsI65FOF

— Martien Visser (@BM_Visser) July 31, 2022

China & EU27: more than 3x more inhabitants; almost 2.5x more energy consumption; and almost 4x more CO2.

NB: a lot of stuff is made in China for the EU.

Prepare for Massive Global Energy Disruptions

YouTube text:

Global energy disruptions are already in the news for all the wrong reasons. But according to a new report from the International Renewable Energy Agency, you ain’t seen nothing yet! 15 million jobs are set to be lost from the fossil fuel industry in the coming years, but more than three times that will be created in the renewable sector. So, can we transform our systems and lifestyles in time to cope with coming revolution?

Industrial Wood Pellet Sector

The global trade in wood pellets is growing. Importers are mainly the forest-poor (prosperous) countries. With 177 kg/inhabitant, NL was the second largest importer in 2021. The leading importer of wood pellets is DK, where they are used as feedstock for heat networks.

[twitter.com] – Martien Visser

Dutch Primary Energy Consumption Receding

Comparing primary energy consumption during Q1 over 7 consecutive years

Thanks to the ongoing corona measures, the relatively warm winter, and the extremely high gas and electricity prices, the final energy consumption in the Netherlands was relatively low in the first quarter of 2022. The attached #graphoftheday shows the breakdown.

[twitter.com] – Martien Visser

15% Renewable Share Dutch Primary Energy Q1-2022

NL verbruikte in Q1 2022 bijna 15% hernieuwbare energie.
Over de diverse bronnen kunnen we discussieren, maar zo is nu eenmaal de internationale definitie. Dus ook de houtskool op uw barbecue telt mee; evenals de bedorven krop sla in uw grijze afvalbak

[twitter.com] – Martien Visser

Facebook Datacenter Netherlands Torpedoed

[source] This data farm would require the annual amount of electricity of 1380 GWh or 460,000 households, that’s Amsterdam, 115 wind turbines or 14 km2 solar park.

Data kraken Facebook thought it could leach on scarce Dutch renewable energy resources by building a huge new data center in Zeewolde. But Meta, the parent company of Facebook, has decided to put the plans on ice, after protests at the national level of Dutch politics. The Netherlands needs these foreign data centers, that occupy 166 ha valuable farm land, use huge energy resources and offer few jobs, like the plague.

Good riddance to Facebook, go back to the prairie where you belong, there is more than enough space and solar irradiation!

[nu.nl] – Facebook zet plannen voor datacenter Zeewolde in de ijskast
[zeewolde.nl] – Energieverbruik
[nos.nl] – Megadatacenter Facebook zet extra druk op al grote energievraag
[datacenterdynamics.com] – Facebook owner Meta suspends Zeewolde, Netherlands data center due to political pushback

World Made by Hand – Netherlands 1920

Colorized pictures from the Limburg mining province in the south of the Netherlands, 1920. Pictures from a world where very little fossil fuel is burned, other than coal in a stove.

The people own little more than the cloths they wear, a bicycle perhaps, some shabby furniture, a kettle. For the vast majority no cars, no holidays, no private homeownership, no means of electronic communication, no kitchen appliances, life expectancy 50 years, most labor is done manually, population 6.5 million rather than the 17.5 million today.

The difference between that world and the present is mostly defined by energy. Take away energy and you will fall back to that old world again, well, amidst the ruins of the modern world that is.

Better think about that before insisting that Kievan Rus of more than 1000 years should become member of the declining MacDonald’s Empire, no matter the cost.

[politico.eu] – Netherlands’ tight fist now chokes Ukraine’s EU bid
[politico.eu] – EU leaders fail to set a date to end energy dependence on Russia
[politico.eu] – What the hell does Emmanuel Macron think he’s playing at with Putin?
[jpost.com] – Bennett advises Zelensky to surrender to Russia, Zelensky refuses

The Dutch block Ukraine EU-membership, no date has been set for cutting off Russian oil and gas imports, Macron keeps talking with Putin and Israel advises Kiev to give up, all four wise moves.

The Netherlands, in a referendum in 2016, rejected the 2014 EU-Ukraine association treaty. The wisdom of the Dutch population shines through these days. NATO and EU-membership for Ukraine are no realistic options, so much is certain. The drive to do so has caused misery by the bucket load and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. In the meantime, there’s nothing left for us Europeans than to engage in damage limitation, toning done and silencing the loons who demand a no-fly zone over Ukraine, which would mean World War 3.

It is unlikely that Russia will conquer the entire Ukraine, they might not even be able to occupy Kiev without destroying this city completely. It is certain though that Russia will be able to keep Ukraine in a stranglehold indefinitely, by taking out Ukrainian military infrastructure from the skies, road blocks and occupying key areas and power stations, until an international settlement has been reached, which inevitably will boil down to the Finlandization of the country.

The only prospect for Ukraine to reach the European Nirvana is that it does so hand-in-hand with Russia. The Gaullist dream of a Europe from the Atlantic to the Ural Mountains, without America, isn’t dead, in fact it came closer, by booting the Americans out from Ukraine and Russia.

US neocon Victoria ‘F*ck the EU’ Nuland cried victory too soon. Here she returned home to Yankeeland to report that the CIA-coup and violent overthrow of a legitimately democratically elected Russia-friendly government in Kiev had succeeded, after years and billions of preparations, using neo-Nazis from Lvov to do the dirty work for the US. Currently, the neo-Nazis are being decimated in Mariupol. Euro-Maidan is history and Ukraine will be drawn back into the Russian sphere of influence. Charles de Gaulle would love it.

Renewables vs. Fossil Fuels – The True Cost of Energy

YouTube text:

You can compare different kinds of energy generation using a metric called the Levelised Cost of Energy, LCOE.

This includes the cost of equipment, transport, installation and grid connection; the cost of finance which can vary depending on the type of projects (it’s getting harder to finance coal projects for example); fuel costs for fossil fuel generators; operations and maintenance including land lease costs.

If the generator is located somewhere with a price on carbon that would be included too. But even without a carbon tax, solar and wind are cheaper than gas and coal generation since 2015.

In this video we talk through all of the components that make up the cost of energy from various sources, and we talk about other values beyond just the cost. What happens when the sun goes down and we still want to use electricity?

What will the future look like with more wind and solar in the grid? And further beyond when we have a lot more batteries and other energy storage available?

Thanks to John Poljak, founder of Keynumbers.com for doing all the calculations and Keynumber visualisations for this video. You can play around with the assumptions, add a carbon price, change the fuel cost etc by heading to http://www.keynumbers.com and then search for “rosie” to get all the models used here (which all end in “(Lazard)”). Add them to the whiteboard to get all of them on one page.

Bookmarks:
00:00 Intro
01:40 Cost of 500MW nameplate capacity
02:27 Difference between power and energy
02:55 Capacity factor
05:09 Financing costs
06:07 Fuel costs
06:24 Heat rate
07:11 Efficiency comparison coal, gas, wind , solar
07:32 Fuel costs and the European gas crisis
08:35 Operations and maintenance
09:27 Solar is the cheapest energy source in 2021
10:40 Marginal cost of fossil fuels vs new build wind and solar
11:31 Moving beyond cost of energy to value
12:18 Value adjusted LCOE – VALCOE
14:30 Future energy value
15:51 Other values besides $$
16:36 Getting real about energy tech tradeoffs
17:02 Thanks John Poljak!

Europe’s 2021 Energy Situation in Charts

[euronews.com] – Europe’s energy crisis: Five charts to explain why your bills might go up this winter