[source] Highly enriched uranium
In the Netherlands, the discussion about building new nuclear power stations has flared up once again, as national elections are coming up. Most of all the liberal-right VVD is promoting it. Fun facts as quoted from AsiaTimes:
Rosatom, Russia’s sprawling state-owned champion, dominates chokepoints in the front end of the nuclear fuel cycle – 38% of global uranium conversion and 46% of enrichment… Since 2007, nuclear reactor exports have become a key channel in Russia’s foreign influence strategy, accounting for about half of the 53 units under construction worldwide… .. Since 2007, nuclear reactor exports have become a key channel in Russia’s foreign influence strategy, accounting for about half of the 53 units under construction worldwide… Additionally, leading US small-modular reactor companies like TerraPower and X-energy require high-assay, low-enriched uranium (HALEU) for their designs, and that is only commercially available from Russia… he broader, energy security implications of growing Russian and Chinese influence over Kazakhstan and its industry behemoth, Kazatomprom – the world’s largest uranium miner.
You get the point: when it comes to nuclear energy, most roads lead to Moscow, but leaderless Europe has over the past few years burned all bridges to Moscow, because it let itself be put in front of the US imperial cart regarding Ukraine.
[source] Uranium spot price development, indicating growing scarcity
In a tightening supply environment, it should be obvious who is going to be served first: China, Russia, BRICS nations, but US empire water carriers, like the Netherlands, last. This comes on top of the US “ally” bombing the essential Nordstream pipelines, putting Europe in a situation of potential energy starvation, not to mention losing the last bits of international respect, turning Europe into a Kindergarten, no to be taken seriously by anybody.
[source] Thanks for nothing, Ursula, you kitchen aid of the US empire!
45% of global primary uranium supply comes from Kazakhstan. Most of that supply will be absorbed by China, that has a massive nuclear development program, that should make China the #1 nuclear electricity producer in the world by 2030. And then there is nuclear weapons issues, that require uranium, with arsenals expanding world-wide, further tightening supplies and increasing prices. Large additional suppliers are Canada and Australia. Guess who they are going to serve first, right, the US.
[source] – Production from mines (tonnes U)
And who should build the new nuclear power stations? Probably France. Well, have a look at this:
[power-technology.com] – Cost of EDF’s Hinkley Point C nuclear project rises to $40bn
That is an insane amount of money for a lousy 3.2 GW power. Completion time: 20 years. Compare that to 1.3 billion/GW name plate or 3 GW if a capacity factor of 40% is included. Then you’ll have 3.2 GW for 10 billion rather than 40 billion, exactly as Lazard claims:
Obviously, this factor of 4 price difference nuclear-wind is still inflated, as one needs to take storage into account. A lot can be done via demand-management, like charging a car battery when the wind blows, via price incentives. But additional storage in hydrogen is inevitable. According to TUD is the price of green hydrogen currently 6 euro/kg, but will decrease to 3 euro/kg in 2030 and 1.50 euro/kg in 2050. 1 kg hydrogen is 33 kWh. If we assume that ca. 33% of produced green electricity needs to be stored in hydrogen, or 40/120 TWh Dutch demand annually, that would be an additional storage cost (hydrogen production cost) of 10.1 billion euro/year in 2030 or 5 billion euro/year in 2050, ignoring conversion losses, just to get a rough idea.
Just don’t do it, Netherlands.
[asiatimes.com] – Splitting the atom’s supply chain