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Archive for the category “geopolitics”

17th Century Dutch Wind Power

You can’t be a great power if you have no functioning efficient energy base. In the 20th century that #1 power was the United States and its oil-based economy. In the 19th century that #1 power was Britain and its coal and steam-engine. In the 17th century the #1 power was the Netherlands and its windmill-based economy. Thousands of windmills were used to pump water away to claim new land and sawmills produced the planks with which the Dutch could build a fleet of 30,000 ships, three times more than the rest of the world combined, used to set up a global empire and en passant to keep the English away.

The lesson for the 21st century is that again that political unit will be the geopolitical “top dog” who embraces a new energy base first. That energy base can only be a renewable energy base, born out of the necessity to combat fossil fuel depletion and climate damage. A united Europe is well-placed to be that political unit and the only one with a coherent renewable energy policy (“completely fossil free by 2050”), but China is taking renewable energy serious as well. And although Washington has no real renewable energy policy worth mentioning, on a state level, like Texas and California, successful initiatives do exist. It is too early for anyone to claim victory.

[wikipedia.org] – Energy policy of the European Union

The #1 reserve currency is a good indicator of geopolitical preeminence.

Read more…

America: Australia’s Dangerous Ally

new_holland
Map from 1818 of ‘New Holland‘ as it was known at the time, even to the British, until at least 1824. Nobody was really that much interested in this vast empty continent, witnessed by the fact that the British deemed it just good enough to make a penal colony out of it. Australia (7.7 m km2) is comparable in size to China (9.5 m km2), but inhabited by merely 23 million people (China 1300 million), facts that likely did not escape the attention of Chinese geostrategists.

John Malcolm Fraser (84) is one of the most senior people Australia can come up with. This distinguished gentleman has just published a long ground-breaking article, in which he advises Australia to distance itself from the United States.

Wikipedia:

Malcolm Fraser (born 21 May 1930) is a former Australian Liberal Party politician who was the 22nd Prime Minister of Australia. He came to power in 1975 through the dismissal of the Whitlam Labor government, in which he played a key role. After three election victories, he was defeated by Bob Hawke in the 1983 election and ended his career alienated from his own party.

Fraser1956
John Malcolm Fraser (1956)

Wikipedia: “Fraser… was educated at Glamorgan and Melbourne Grammar School, before completing a degree in Philosophy, Politics and Economics at Magdalen College, Oxford, in 1952. At Oxford, Fraser was a classmate and friend of future Canadian cabinet minister and Prime Minister John Turner.” Editor: Fraser (and Turner) were the Australian resp. Canadian servants of the British empire, before Australia and Canada morphed into staunch satellites of the US empire, Anglosphere, the embryonic NWO, the Judaic State or whatever you want to call it.

A few quotes from Fraser’s article:

IT IS time for Australia to end its strategic dependence on the United States. The relationship with America, which has long been regarded as beneficial, has now become dangerous to Australia’s future. We have effectively ceded to America the ability to decide when Australia goes to war…

The idea of American exceptionalism is contrary to Australia’s sense of egalitarianism…

… at the moment, because of U.S. military installations in Australia, if America goes to war in the Pacific, it will take us to war as well—without an independent decision by Australia. Finally, under current circumstances, in any major contest in the Pacific, our relationship with America would make us a strategic target for America’s enemies…

The idea of American exceptionalism, which has always been present in the United States, has gone far beyond all comprehension in the years of America’s absolute supremacy…

Our task is not to embrace America, but to preserve ourselves from its reckless overreach…

Wow, what a candid admission, typical made by very senior politicians, with one leg in the grave. The sort of admission secret service expert and former Italian president Francesco Cossiga made when he said in 2007 in the largest Italian newspaper that 9/11 had been carried out by the Mossad and CIA, when he was 79 and was suffering from terminal cancer. Or US congressman Paul Findley, who in 2007 at the age of 86, claimed that the US was basically an Israeli colony. Courageous people are few, but do exist.

The article is a long read. But the essence is that Fraser accuses the US to be not interested in world peace and as such is a threat to all others. Fraser hints that the West is at least as guilty for the Ukrainian mess as is Russia and blames NATO of breaking its promise to Russia not to expand eastwards. Fraser says that basically Russia had no choice but to merge with Crimea, because of the Russian military facilities there. But Fraser is a little naive if he thinks that the current mess in Ukraine is the result of ‘failure of US diplomacy’, instead of what it really is: a naked, raw US power grab.

Fraser does not believe in a western defeat of the Islamic State nor that the West has any chance of long term success in Afghanistan. Furthermore, Fraser is afraid that an assertive nationalist and militarist Japan, possibly armed with long-range nuclear weapons in the near future, could become a catalyst for war between the US and China, now that the US has sided with Japan in the Chinese-Japanese dispute over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands.

Fraser concludes that since the US could not win the conflict with Vietnam, it almost certainly can’t win a military conflict with China. And since Australia is allied to the US, Australia would become the defeated ally of a defeated superpower, without any friends in the region. In 1991, Australia was not as tightly integrated with the US as it is now, a development that Fraser deplores and was supported by both major Australian political parties.

malcolm-fraser
Malcolm Fraser today, sadder and wiser, does not believe in a second American Century and fears for a Chinese future of Australia.

Editor: as always, you need to read between the lines of what this Australian old political fox is saying. Fraser is clearly afraid of China. He does not believe in a second American Century. He fears that the United States will likely loose a military confrontation with China, if push comes to shove. And that by implication, the Australian Lebensraum automatically would become a tasty prey for the victorious Chinese superpower. And that Euro-Siberia, if that were to happen, won’t lift a finger to protect Australia (he is correct, they won’t).

Australia’s cards are very weak. Fraser admits that Australia has no friends, apart from the United States and yet pleads for Australia to distance itself from the only friend Australia has. And Euro-Siberia will be relieved to see Australia as a safety valve for Chinese expansionism, if any. Better Australia than Siberia, you hear them think.

[nationalinterest.org] – America: Australia’s Dangerous Ally

Read more…

Moscow Confirms “Turkish Stream”

EUdead_1960811b[source]

Yesterday we expressed our fear that Europe could have missed the boat with South Stream and indeed, Gazprom Deputy Chief Executive Officer Alexander Medvedev confirmed that South Stream is history and that instead “the Turkish Stream” is going to be build, even if the EU showed signs of being prepared to make a U-turn. And we believe Russia is credible. The European loss of face is enormous.

Putin-Russia has been courting Europe for full fourteen years, but under the current circumstances had no other choice than to quit. The nagging of the Euro-dwarfs Juncker, Hollande and Merkel simply became too much. As late as June Putin openly advocated a confederation with Europe, but was snubbed. We cannot begin to describe the depth of our rage.

China, Turkey and the US can’t believe their luck.

Satanic Washington got what it wanted, hook, line and sinker: destroy European-Russian relations, that got too cosy to the taste of the US. The neocons organized a Pinochet style CIA coup in Kiev, handpicked a satrap government and forced Putin to exercise damage limitation, by preventing NATO from taking Sevastopol, as well as wannabee operetta Nazi’s genociding Russians in Donbass (nota bene under Kolomoysky Zionist control, you really have to despair at the quality of what passes as Nazi’s these days). And they likely had a hand in co-organizing the downing of the MH17, the flying Lusitania. And from then on they could demonize Putin to their hearts content, dragging the Euro fools with them, completely against their own interest. Washington must be roaring with laughter, f*ck the EU!

China, because Russia has been successfully driven into their arms for a long time to come. Huge Russian infrastructure projects, like high-speed railway lines, will go to Chinese firms, not European ones. Additionally China is jubilant that with this move, Turkey is likely bought into the SCO-alliance, next to existing SCO-member Iran. And since Turkey and Iran will take over the entire Middle East in the coming decade, at the cost of Saudi-Arabia and the West, this means that the entire Middle East, with all its fossil fuel resources will then be under control of the Beijing-Moscow axis.

StrategicEllipse
German Bundeswehr strategic assessment: more than 70% of fossil fuel reserves are situated in the “strategic ellipse” and Europe is now completely left out, because these Euro-idiots let themselves being maneuvered into black hole Ukraine on orders of the satanic Washington neocohns, destroying the relationship with Russia in the process, carefully build up over decades.

Turkey is jubilant as well. Out of the blue and completely unnecessary, Turkey got control over a large chunk of future fossil fuel supply from the Middle East and Russia to Europe and acquired corresponding leverage over Europe, illustrating once again the total incompetence of the European political class, that has outsourced the management of its interests to Washington, an extremely stupid idea. And when Egypt (including Suez canal) will sooner or later fall to the Caliphate, this would mean that Europe will be completely shut off from any source of fossil fuel.

The losers are Russia and Europe and the pathetic spineless Juncker, Hollande and Merkel and their convenient rock solid but fatal and masochistic Atlanticist faith are entirely to blame for this disaster. They will go into the history books as the Honecker’s and Ceausescu’s of western Europe, unable to say no to their overlords at the right time. They sit with their lazy *sses on the most advanced and greatest economy on the planet and yet don’t know what to do with it, other than waiting for orders from Washington.

Russia has to acknowledge that its plan A (Europe of the Fatherlands, including Russia) failed and are now reluctantly executing plan B, to find themselves driven into the welcoming arms of the Chinese.

russia_trade_partners_464gr

Europe did not merely shot itself in the foot; it shot itself in both feet, hands, chest, head and genitals (if any). Nobody expects the EU to declare war on America. It would have been sufficient to say no to the sanctions, no to the take-over of Ukraine, yes to South Stream. Europe should have acted just like Schroeder/Fisher and Chirac/Villepin acted in 2003 over Iraq. Just say no, that was all, which would have come at the price of being called a “cheese eating surrender monkey” once again; who cares what the Americans say anyway. They will be history soon, like the USSR in 1991. Ukraine should have been a European-Russian affair and the US neo-bolsheviks should have been kept out.

Few people realize how dramatic for Europe this turn of events really is.

[upi.com] – Moscow confirms status of South Stream

Oil Price Off The Cliff

oilprice-2year[source]
Oilprice development over the last 2 year

What is happening here? Two hypotheses:

  • Saudi-Arabia deliberately flooding the oil market to wipe the competition out (Iran, Russia, US fracking business)
  • Demand destruction; world adapting to the high oil prices over the recent years

William Engdahl and others assume that Saudi-Arabia has increased oil production on request of global embarrassment USA in order to attack Russia, lower Russian income and hope for regime change in Moscow so they can loot the joint again, like during the Jeltsin & oligarch years.

Our educated guess is that it is mainly the first factor. Consumer behavior doesn’t change that fast. But we tend to think that this price dip will be short-lived, because likely victim #1 will be the US and its fracking business, wiping out production there in no-time, although Russia also will be severely hit. The winners of course are the consumers, to begin with in Europe:

[spiegel.de] – Ifo-Ökonomen heben Wachstumsprognose kräftig an

Very upbeat expectations for Germany. 1.5% growth in 2015 expected and record low unemployment of 6.6%.

[telegraaf.nl] – CPB: export én consumptie trekken aan

Netherlands, same story. 1.5% growth, reduced unemployment

Meanwhile, Iran is not amused:

[myfoxny.com] – Iran: Fall in oil prices is ‘treachery’

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) – Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani said Wednesday that the sharp fall in global oil prices is the result of “treachery,” in an apparent reference to regional rival Saudi Arabia, which opposed production cuts.

[telegraph.co.uk] – Saudi Prince says Riyadh won’t cut oil unless others follow

Saudi-Arabia admits that it could decrease production to give a boost to oil prices, but that it won’t:

“The kingdom is not going to give up market share at this time to anybody and allow – whether it is Russia, Nigeria, or Iran or other places – to sell oil to Saudi customer,” said Prince Turki, who has also held Saudi Arabia top overseas diplomatic post as the kingdom’s ambassador to the US.

Pepe Escobar on Turk Stream

putin-erdogan
Tough guys who know what they want, unlike the Euro pussies

Russia cancelled South Stream, catching the EU by surprise. The EU bluffed and failed. Germany can praise itself lucky is has at least North Stream in place, the Balkans are not so lucky.

The pipeline gambit began with the South Stream – Nabucco competition in 2009. 2009, that was before the 2014-prospect of Turkish SCO membership became a distinct possibility. 2009 was the year the West thought that Turkey was a western ally. The idiots.

Nabuccostream
2009 picture: Nabucco versus South Stream. Now South Stream and Nabucco have merged into a single pipeline, originating in Russia, but ending up in Turkey. The Turks can use this new situation to blackmail Europe, if necessary.

Nabucco turned out to be an empty promise: no pipeline, because no supply. Escobar says that South Stream could be revived, but he would not bet the farm on it. However, Juncker almost immediately backpedaled, but after Escobar finished his article.

But for the moment, South Stream is history. The pipeline is going to be built, but now to Turkey, not Bulgaria. Russian gas will probably end up in Europe anyway, but via Turkey, who can close down the future pipeline if it wants to. Europe wanted to reduce dependency on Russia (on orders of its US overlord), now the Euro-fools increased their dependency on both Russia and Turkey. Turkey won’t stall the process with nitpicking ‘third energy packages’ and glad it can control energy flows to Europe after all.

Escobar points out that the new destination of the pipeline makes perfect business sense for Russia, since Turkey is the 2nd biggest customer of Russian gas, after Germany, much bigger than Bulgaria, Hungary and Austria combined. But perhaps Turkey will be kind enough and leave something left for the Euro’s after all. Perhaps not.

Turkey is the big winner. They not only get the new pipeline, they also will receive a total new nuclear infrastructure, to be built by Russia. Turkey increasingly will become a hub for gas and oil. They already transport fuel from Azerbaijan, via the Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan pipeline. Poor Saudi-Arabia; Russia will provide Turkey with all the energy it will need.

Furthermore, this is almost certainly an overture towards Turkish SCO-membership, completely sidelining the EU. Russia courted Europe from the very moment Putin came to power and Europe initially reciprocated the avances, culminating in the refusal of the triumvirate Putin-Schroeder-Chirac to join the US in the rape of Iraq.

putin-schroeder-chirac
This is what Putin really wants, cooperating with Germany and France, but unfortunately, Hollande and Merkel are of a lesser caliber than Schroeder and Chirac and completely subservient to Washington demands.

But everything went catastrophically downwards for Europe, when it cooperated with neocon run Washington, the only serious enemy Europe has, in its successful attempt to steel Ukraine from the 1000 year old Russian sphere of influence, early 2014. It was an act of pure western aggression and now Russia has hit back where it really hurts and this damage will be extremely difficult to mend and it will be probably necessary to kick the entire Atlanticist nomenclatura out, ranging from Merkel, Hollande to Juncker.

[russia-insider.com] – “Turk Stream”: Huge Win for Turkey – Big Win For Russia – Historic Loss for EU

Condoleezza Rice on Russian-European Energy Relations

Former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and only woman with a bulky and greasy oil tanker named after her, forcing her to pretend that she actually liked that charming distinction, has some good advice for Europeans: lessen your dependency on Russian oil & gas and start to rely on your good friends in North-America.

La Rice ignores that the US is still and probably always will be a net fossil fuel importer, despite all the talk about increased shale oil and gas production. In other words: there is no mythical excess North-American supply that can replace Russian oil & gas. Washington will only be our friend, as long as Europe will play the second fiddle in the US multicultural global empire and the weaker Europe and its economy is, the better it is for the US. With friends like the US, who needs enemies?

Our Euro-centric neo-Gaullist political outlook of course is: ignore this self-serving advice, aimed at driving a wedge between Europe and Russia and bide time for the suitable moment to escape from the sarcophagus of European civilization, aka the West, led by financial house of cards and ethnographic time bomb USA. In this sense we can sympathize with the Turks, who have roughly the same attitude vis-a-vis Washington.

There is no way that the US, dominated by the all-powerful Israel Lobby, but that is rapidly changing into a third world country, can dominate 1.3 billion Chinese, 1.6 billion Muslims, 500 million Europeans and 200 million Slavs (with nuclear parity) ad infinitum. And the more it tries, the more it mobilizes counter forces and eventually will ensure that the entire world will unite against the US: France and Germany joining the BRICS for instance, would tilt the balance. Most likely the demise of the US as global hegemon will be initiated by China and Russia as the result of their clear intent to work towards the point where they no longer will accept dollar payments. The US, that needs to print $85 billion per month to keep itself afloat, will sink away in hyperinflation and chaos, once all the worlds dollars will return home, to the only place where they can’t be refused as legal tender.

Syria, Ukraine & Natural Gas

grand-chessboard[source]
Syria

Pepe Escobar explains the origin of the conflict in Syria from a competition between Qatar and Iran about who could build a pipeline for European markets, sourced from the largest gasfield in the world, Pars, partitioned between Qatar and Iran. Syria had preference for a pipeline Iran-Iraq-Syria-Mediterranean, so Iran could sell gas from Iran, where Qatar insisted on a pipeline Qatar-Syria-Turkey, so Qatar could sell gas from Qatar. Obviously, Turkey and Iran’s arch-enemy Washington backed Qatar. If Syria had its way, the EU could be provided with gas for 45% from Russia & Iran, which meant tight European integration into Eurasia, which was unacceptable for the strategists in Washington. So the plan was to overthrow Assad and install a moderate Muslim Brotherhood sort of regime, which would have enabled the Qatar-Turkey ‘Sunny’ pipeline. As things stand now however, neither of both pipelines are going to be build any time soon.

Ukraine

Escobar is much less convincing when he suggests that the Ukrainian fracking potential was the determining factor in the conflict. He even suggests that ethnic cleansing is the undeclared goal, so fracking can commence unhindered. It is unlikely that Europe would support regime change in Ukraine to get fracking started and at the same time jeopardize the far greater volumes of fossil fuel from Russia than Ukraine can ever hope to offer. Realistically, the regime change was prepared years in advance, long before the fracking craze began in the US. In truth it was all about weakening Russia by stealing an ancient satellite from Moscow and mostly initiated by Washington. The EU empire builders were indeed also eyeing Ukraine and were willing to exploit the Maidan demonstrations for a rapprochement Brussels-Kiev, if it could be achieved ‘on the cheap’, without antagonizing Russia too much. But as things stand now, particularly Germany has second thoughts and would like to dump the Ukrainian project altogether.

[rt.com]

Iran Backs Nabucco

nabucco[source]
Click to enlarge. The green pipeline within red ellipse is the planned but controversial Nabucco pipeline.

As of late, Russian-Irainian relations were intensifying: there was a power deal worth up to $10 billion, including new thermal and hydroelectric plants and a transmission network. And the barter trade oil-for-goods, according to which Russia may buy 500,000 barrels of Iranian oil a day. All much to the dismay of Washington.

However, now that Russia is itself under US and EU sanctions, and the West perhaps needs to see Iran as the lesser evil, now that ISIS is on the march, Tehran smells the chance to improve relations with Europe and position Iran as an alternative for Russian natural gas, knowing well that Europe sought to diversify its supply even before the Western engineered Ukrainian stand-off. Russia and Iran both have about the same reserves: 33 trillion m3. A logical route for transporting natural gas from Iran to Europe would be via Turkey. The alternative, the Friendship Pipeline, planned shortly before the Syrian civil war began, would connect the South Pars field, the largest natural gas field in the world, to the Mediterranean via Iraq and Syria. Obviously construction of such a pipeline is impossible under the current circumstances. Some claim that the outbreak of the civil war in Syria (begin anti-Assad protests March 2011, armed conflict started in September 2011) was related to the plan.

Iran is now in a difficult position. On the one hand it doesn’t want to spoil its good relationship with Russia, on the other hand Iran needs development and opportunities to sell its natural gas. And Iran knows that Europe wants to diversify and is anxious to invest in Iran provided a deal could be made. And that investment to the tune of $200 billion would be highly necessary to be able to deliver gas to Europe. In this respect Iran is lagging way behind Russia, meaning that Iranian gas is not going to replace Russian gas any time soon.

But then, out of the blue, Iran’s Deputy Oil Minister Ali Mejidi dropped the bombshell on August 11, by suggesting that “with Nabucco, Iran can provide Europe with gas. We are the best alternative to Russia.” It is not impossible that the US signaled Iran that benefits would be waiting if it would begin to promote the pet western pipeline project. For Iran this would mean business and some guarantee that the country could move itself out of the line of fire and have normalized relations with the West. Obviously this would come at the expense of Russia, although only in the long term, where South Stream could start to produce as early as by the end of next year, provided the stand-off and sanction baloney can be reversed quickly. Iran is the only country able to provide the necessary ‘content’ to the projected Nabucco pipeline. It could be in this light that bogeyman Iran could leave the ‘axis of evil’ in the future and is going to be replaced by Russia and ISIS as the new villains.

[rt.com] – Pepe Escobar, Energy ballet: Iran, Russia and ‘Pipelineistan’
[counterpunch.org] – Mike Whitney, Did Iran Just Knife Putin in the Back?

McCain Visits Bulgaria

mccain
US war mongering government to EU: “shoot yourself in the foot“. And the EU spineless satrap bureaucrats obey orders and shoot themselves in the foot. Brussels ordered Bulgaria to immediately halt work on the South-Stream pipeline, an obvious hit against Russia on orders of Washington, that is determined to start a war, cold or hot, with Russia on European soil.

south_stream

Bulgaria btw is for the full 100% dependent on Russia for natural gas deliveries. The BBC schmucks noted: “Bulgaria has previously said it is being targeted by Brussels as a means of retaliating against Russia over the situation in Ukraine”.

[bbc.com]
[spiegel.de]

At least they got that right. So Bulgaria, why listen to Brussels and commit economic suicide? Here an overview of European fossil fuel dependency on Russia:

EUgas1

Meanwhile, another spineless US satrap wannabee, the candy bar prez of the Ukraine, Poroshenko, has announced his maximalist positions regarding Novorossia, no doubt on orders of Washington, to create as much blood shed among Russophiles in south-eastern Ukraine to force Putin to intervene in the Ukraine:

novoro10
Very good source for day-to-day intepretation of events in the Ukraine:
[vineyardsaker.blogspot.nl]
[vineyardsaker.blogspot.nl]

This is precisely the scheme with which Germany was suckered into WW2, when the allies secretly gave the Poles cart-blanche to go after the Germans forced to live in Versailles-Poland. In reality it was the refugee-crisis that prompted the German invasion (read for instance: 1939 – The War That Had Many Fathers, by Gerd Schultze-Rhonhof), an interpretation of events that Russia reluctantly seems to be willing to support. War is much closer than many people realize in the west. At least another cold war, but possibly even worse than that. War would mean that Europe will be cut off from Russian fossil fuel, with devastating effect for eastern Europe, but also for Germany. Again, it is time for us Europeans to break up the west and turn to Russia and send the Americans packing. The US are a dying empire. According to Paul Craig Roberts, a member of the former Reagan administration, the US will be a third world country by 2023.

But unfortunately it looks like that the US war machine doesn’t want to die peacefully like the USSR did in 1991.

AverageIQ-Map-World-b
Average IQ-map of the world, clearly indicating a shift towards Eurasia.

[wikipedia.org]

America destroyed itself through mass-immigration from the third world. The days that America could put a man on the moon are long gone. Europe is clearly member of the wrong club. After the death of the Rothschildt-Goldman-Sachs empire (Anglosphere), initiated by the dumping of the dollar by the BRICS and the rest of the world, the world will become multi-polar, with Greater Europe (Paris-Berlin-Moscow) and China the leading political entities. China will retake Taiwan and possibly Australia and double its territory and solve its overpopulation problem. And Greater Europe of 700 million will protect European enclaves of 200 million in the balkanized north-America of the future.

paris-berlin-moscou-transparent

*UPDATE*

[rt.com] – Bulgaria halts Russia’s South Stream gas pipeline project
[rt.com] – No changes to South Stream gas pipeline– Serbian Prime Minister

$400B Russian-Chinese Gas Deal

russia-china-gasdeal
Well done, America! By investing merely $5B in the overthrow of a legitimately elected democratic government in Kiev, using neo-nazi useful idiots as a tool for the dirty work, Washington managed to drive Russia into the arms of China and en passant deprive Europe of $400 billion worth of fossil fuel that cannot be replaced in the process. And you bet this was on purpose. Everything was done to prevent a rapprochement between Europe and Russia and keep Europe in a subservient position to the US. This could only happen due to Europe having no credible leadership, unlike Russia and China. It is time that Europe reconsiders its relationship with the US, get rid of Washington and NATO and go Eurasian.

One significant aspect though is that the gas will no longer be paid in dollar. And why should it? China has a broad palette of products to offer in exchange for natural gas from Russia.

[rt.com] – Russia and China seal historic $400bn gas deal
[rt.com] – ​‘EU has no reason to worry Russia-China gas deal will affect supplies’
[infowars.com] – Who needs the United States? Not Russia and China
[lewrockwell.com] – Eric Margolis: The Deal of the Century
[spiegel.de] – 30-Jahres-Vertrag mit China: Was Putins Gas-Deal für Europa bedeutet

Russia-China Gas Deal

gas5
Gas deal: $456 billion for 38 billion m3 over the next 30 years, starting in 2018. Price: 35-40 cent/m3. The US can be proud of itself. Through its clever maneuvering in the Ukraine, it has driven a wedge between Europe and Russia over the Crimean non-issue, leaving Russia little choice to prepare for the worst: opt for China as plan B. In that light it is of the utmost importance to tell the Americans to pack their bags and go home. America is not a friend, but a competitor and should be treated as such. Europe’s interests are first and foremost situated in Eurasia, that’s where the markets are, that’s where the resources are.

[rt.com]

StrategicEllipse

Merkel Visits Washington

US President Barack Obama meets with Ger[source]
In the midst of the deepening Ukrainian crisis, German chancellor Angela Merkel travels to Washington, and no doubt will be subjected to pressure to become tougher with ‘Putin’s Russia‘. A short glance on the graph below will immediately make clear that sanctions are only in the interest of Washington, but certainly not of Europe:

russia_trade_partners_464gr

Meanwhile, senator John “boots-on-the-ground” McCain deplores that in his view the ‘German industry lobby’ has too much influence in German foreign policy, which is a ‘disgrace’.

[spiegel.de] – Senator McCain findet Merkels Führungsstil “peinlich” (Senator McCain finds Merkel’s leadership ‘painfull’).

And then there is John Kerry, who opines that with the Ukraine stand-off the ‘Trans-Atlantic global leadership is at stake’. After two decades of trying to manage Russia into (Washington-run) globalist structures, he has come to the conclusion that Russia is not interested.

[rt.com] – Trans-Atlantic global leadership at stake in Ukraine – Kerry

Our take: Washington is about the last place a German leader would want to be these days. It was Washington and the Nuland-coup that intentionally triggered the Ukrainian crisis in the first place. Germany and Europe can expect Washington to exploit the Ukraine issue to the max and drive a wedge between Europe and Russia. The Grand Old Men of German politics (Schmidt, Kohl and Schroeder) all warned against antagonizing Russia. The German industry likewise. But it is to be feared that das Maedchen doesn’t have enough spine (avoiding references to other body parts) to resist this frontal assault against German/European best interests.

Europe’s Dependency on Russian Gas

EUgas1

EUgas2

EUgas3

EUgas4

[daskapital.nl]

German-Russian Gas Trade to be Increased

russia_trade_partners_464gr[source]
A few days ago we reported negatively about announcements made by German chancellor Angela Merkel about a radical change in Germany’s energy policy in an effort to decrease the German dependency on Russian oil and gas. However, according to new information, the German government has decided to give the nod to new joint Russian-German gas projects worth billions. Maybe all the anti-Russian talk was perhaps intended to appease the Americans, where in reality business-as-usual reigns in all things German-Russian energy and trade relations? We hope so.

[spiegel.de] – Energie-Importe: Merkel winkt neue Gasprojekte mit Russland durch

India Ready to Pay Iranian Oil in Euro

Euro_vs_Dollar
New Delhi, March 23: India is likely to grant Iran’s request to be paid fully in euros for oil, against the current practice of partial payment in rupees… Reports quoting Mohsen Qamsari, director for international affairs of the National Iranian Oil Company, said, “Indians are interested in increasing oil imports from Iran and we welcome this matter in the event that it would be possible for us to receive payments in euros in our accounts.”

[telegraphindia.com]

Breakthrough Iranian Nuclear Program

For more than a decade the Iranian nuclear policy has been on the top of the international political agenda, but today a breakthrough was accomplished in Geneva between Iran and the P5 (China, France, Germany, Russia, United Kingdom, United States). Terms of the agreement: Iran can continue to enrich uranium but no more than 5% and limits the stockpile of enriched uranium. More transparency is agreed upon. In return some sanctions will be lifted and the basic right of uranium enrichment is acknowledged. The agreement is intended for six months, creating time for a permanent settlement. The most important conclusion is that the agreement is acceptable for all and that military strikes are off the table.

[spiegel.de]
[reuters.com]
[rt.com]

Read more…

The Next Reserve Currency

Reserve Currency Status[zerohedge]
According to Wikipedia: a reserve currency, or anchor currency, is a currency that is held in significant quantities by many governments and institutions as part of their foreign exchange reserves. Being the owner of a reserve currency means you are a top dog; that you are in the middle of where all the action is. During the past six centuries there have been six countries holding the largest reserve currency. Painting with a broad brush you could allocate a century to each of them:

  • Portugese Century (15th) – The concept of a ‘Portugese Century’ is a bit of a stretch for this tiny melancholic European outpost, but nevertheless it were Portugese dare devils who were the first and only ones during the entire 15th century to explore the planet in grand style, before they were overtaken by Spanish, Dutch and British. The Portugese set the tone for European imperialism for centuries to come.
  • Spanish Century (16th) – Christianity ruled supreme again in Spain, after the last muslims were kicked out, a process known as Reconquista and America was discovered for the Spanish crown, both events in 1492. Gold and silver were transported from the new world to Spain by the boat load, leading to the rise of Spain within the European state system.
  • Dutch Century (17th) – Nothing beats winning a major war before you can even hope to own a reserve currency. In this century the Dutch were the winners, the losers the Spanish. The resulting landmark Peace of West-Phalia meant the consolidation of Protestantism in Europe, with Holland as its supreme bastion, a religion emphasizing the value of labour, economy, money and profit. The Dutch commercial fleet was three times the size compared to all other powers combined. All the foundations of modern economic life: capitalism, corporate structures, central banking, share holders, can be found in the Netherlands first as a fully developed integrated economic system, that would expand globally, perfected by the Americans and hold until today. The Dutch were the ones who kicked in the doors of modernity. The last great achievement of the Dutch was the military conquest of Britain and Northern Ireland by the Dutch army in 1688/1689, the so-called ‘Glorious Revolution‘. But please do us a favour, don’t mention this to the British, they don’t like to hear it. By plundering the vaults of the British treasury, the Dutch were able to hold the rising French power in check. The last European assault against Protestantism by Catholic ruled Britain and France against the Netherlands in 1672 was averted and Britain became a Protestant state. By exporting a winning religeous formulae to a larger country, the Dutch eventually digged their own grave. Holland is to be seen as the blueprint of Anglosphere and the United States in particular; heck, they even wrote the American Declaration of Independence, so Jefferson did not have to do it. The Dutch are pro-American to a fault, because of the religeous/cultural proximity and historic ties, no surprise they were the first to recognise the American Republic. Here are more than 50,000 Dutch assembled in the Amsterdam arena in May 2012, celebrating America. Not even the British would display this orgy of pro-Americanism, let alone the Germans or French. In 177x, the Dutch played a decisive role in bringing about the independent American Republic, together with France, at the cost of Britain. Britain fuming with rage, took revenge in the fourth and last Anglo-Dutch sea war and destroyed Holland as a large European power. But Holland had passed on the baton of its way of life to the United States.
  • French century (18th) – Next there were the French, who rose to continental supremacy, starting with Louis XIV, culminating in the conquest of the entire European continent up until Moscow under Napoleon. It is interesting to note that in this list of six, the French, who detest water, unless there is alcohol in it, were the only landbased power, unlike the Portugese, Spanish, Dutch, English and Americans, who are all seafaring nations (or ‘thalassocratic‘ nations if you have a degree in geopolitics and want to impress your mother and pretend that you understand the Heartland theory of Mackinder). The Anglos, who like to cultivate a certain dedain for these ‘cheese eating surrender monkeys‘, have yet to show for a similar military accomplishment (Subduing Hottentots or bombing women and children from safe three mile altitude or fighting German kids in the 1944 Ardennes does not really count). Just like that if you want to count in the modern world you need to have an ipad, in those days the snobs spoke French, like the upperclasses in the Netherlands or Prussia. The British, who by definition don’t like the strongest state in Europe, be it the Spanish, the Dutch, the French or the Germans (Balance of Power politics), organized a coalition against the French, who literally found their Waterloo in 1815.
  • British Century (19th) – From now on, for two centuries, the reserve currency would speak English. After Napoleon, the British empire was next, greatly stimulated by the invention of the steam engine, leading to vast industries, train networks and increased shipping. London was the true center of the world, much more than New York is today. By 1920 the British had acquired ca. 25% of the planet as a little Lebensraum of their own. But then the British committed suicide by applying their balance of power strategy one time too many and chose to destroy Germany, that had dared to outcompete Britain (and France) on world markets by the turn of the century. The British started to mastermind a coalition with the intent to destroy Germany (‘Germania est delenda‘), a strategy that succeeded initially, culminating in Versailles, the most cruel ‘peace treaty’ ever, but the same conflict was exploited the second time by extra-European powers USA and USSR. Although the British until today think that they won WW2, in reality they lost the largest empire in recorded history and unintentionally created the foundations of European unity, ending five centuries of British balance of power strategy. It is unlikely that we will hear much of Britain ever again as it remains to be seen if London can hold onto Scotland and Wales, or even onto itself as London is no longer majority English. Britain has acted as Europe’s geopolitical cat flap, that can be used by foreign powers to bring continental Europe down. The British are so fond of humor that they have decided to turn their own country into a joke.
  • American Century (20th) – The 20th century should have been the German century, but thanks to the actions of Britain in 1914 and 1939, Europe, that had ruled the planet since 1492, committed geopolitical suicide and the baton was passed to the USA and USSR. The American century was born. Or was it the jewish century, as this jewish author wants to have it? It was the Soviet spy Harry Dexter White, acting on behalf of the US government, who was the architect behind the Bretton Woods arrangement, that explicitly bombarded the US dollar as the reserve currency of the western world, now under leadership of the US. The western world experienced unparalleled economic prosperity, mainly thanks to unlimited supply of cheap fossil fuel. In 1989 the Berlin Wall came down and soon afterwards the USSR disintegrated. What followed was the so-called ‘unipolar moment‘, where the real US power brokers behind the scenes, like Krauthammer, Kristol, Perle, Wolfowitz, Ledeen, Libby, the ethnic identity of whom you are not supposed to mention in polite company, were dreaming of a ‘benevolent hegemony‘ of the US. The event of 9/11 provided a pretext for the creation of a terrorism meme, which would be used to invade countries at will; not few suspected that 9/11 was setup for that purpose (‘inside job’). Whatever the truth of that, the invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan proved to be a disaster for the US, from which it will unlikely recover. Combined with the rapid morphing of the US into a third world country and structural fiscal deficits of 1+ trillion $, it is obvious that the days for the dollar as global reserve currency are numbered and that it can lay itself to rest in the reserve currency mausoleum, next to the pesos, guilder, franc and stirling. Washington wants to rule the world but it can’t. Even Samuel Huntington, the great American prophet of the coming identitarian multipolar world order, had to backtrack from his own theory, as he foresaw that possibly North-America would not fit into his scheme. According to Pat Buchanan, the US might break up before 2025 as a result of ethnic strife, just like everywhere else in the world and we support that view.

    So which currency is going to be the next reserve currency? Who are the candidates?

    Current reserve currency situation:

    Global_Reserve_Currencies[source]

    Ranking nominal GDP:

    EU $17T
    US $15T
    China $7T
    Japan $5T
    Russia $2T
    India $2T
  • Dollar? All talk about American decline is premature and the dollar will stay in place? Owning a reserve currency means you can, to a certain extent, print money with zero nominal value in exchange for real values, first and foremost oil. But this setup presupposes that there are economic partners willing to accept this money in the first place. As we speak all major ‘partners’ like Russia, China and Brasil (BRICS) and now even Australia, are working towards the goal of eliminating/bypassing this essentially American free lunch.
  • Euro? Come-back of Europe? They ruled the planet for five centuries, even as a divided continent, until assorted inconveniences like Americans and Soviets came along and (temporarily?) interrupted the European party. The Soviets are dead and although the US can wipe out life on the planet 100 times over, the Russians, Chinese, French and British can do it at least one time, which is basically enough, militarily speaking to keep the Americans in check. A cowboy carrying hundred shooters is not necessarily in advantage facing an opponent with only one. Militarily the US are a paper tiger as soon as the famous boots are on the ground, as fiasco’s like Vietnam, Somalia, Lebanon, Afghanistan and Iraq have shown. The American is a travelling salesman, not a warrior, or ‘lousy imperialists‘ as Pat Buchanan once put it. Europe already is the largest economic power on the planet, is for the first time united under a single currency and has 500 million Europeans in contrast to 180 million Euro-Americans plus 120 million of non-European origin, many of whom are a burden rather than an asset. Europe’s industry by-and-large outcompeted that of the US (cars, planes, trains, aerospace) and sooner or later this will have repercussions on the political power level. Not that these industries have a lot of future in a resource depleted world, but it does show the strength of the new formation. And then there is the option of a Paris-Berlin-Moscow alliance, the one advocated by French general De Gaulle (‘Europe of the Fatherlands’). Quintessential gas-pipelines to Europe already come from the East, not from the Atlantic, a geopolitical fact of the highest importance.

    The French president Charles de Gaulle in 1962 rejecting supranationalism and Atlanticism in favour of a Europe of the Fatherlands, including Russia after the demise of communism. The time is ripe for that vision to be realized.

  • Renminbi? The what? See, everybody on the planet knows what a dollar or euro is, or even currency number three, the British pound, but China still has a long way to go before at least 5% of the US population can discern this currency from a starlet featuring in American Idols. Would-be Nostradamusses like Jim Rogers already let their kids learn Mandarin (which is not a fruit), because, you see, China is the next big thing, just because these people are foolish enough to fill the shelves at Walmart with pedal bins in exchange for printed green paper.
  • Gold? Libertarians of all nations unite! Oh wait, that’s a ‘collectivist’ thing to do and we are all glad we are not like that. Seriously, gold has won considerable traction world wide since the FED began to print money big time and nobody was fooled by the soothing term ‘quantitative easing’. Yet as a coin gold is useless unless you bring your microscope when you buy a loaf of bread. Demanding that paper currency is backed by gold for 100% will work maybe for a couple of years, but soon another Nixon will come along and start to ease this restriction. In itself ‘fiat currencies’ can and did work, provided you have an independent central bank with the task of keeping inflation low. Best example is the Bundesbank, an institution that worked perfectly for decades. Why? Because the Germans had not set themselves impossible goals and merely concentrated on building cars and left ‘conquering the world’ gladly to the Americans. The Americans in contrast cannot let go of impossible imperial dreams and that’s what’s bringing them and their currency down in the end (‘imperial overstretch‘). They don’t have the money to fund all their imperial projects, so they print, which is noticed by the rest of the world, which votes with its feet, that is away from the dollar.
  • IMF run world currency? Well, as long as the IMF is (correctly) seen as an institution serving western interests, this is not likely to happen.

    Conclusion

    First of all, in the rising multipolar world, there will be no second Bretton Woods, where one entity can impose its currency upon another. There will be several competing currencies and the acceptance of a foreign currency will be proportional to the package of products that economy can provide to the potential holder of that currency. You are from Kenia and you want a car? Forget your local currency, make sure you have dollars or euro’s and then you can come back. You are still from Kenia and now want oil from the Gulf to drive in your newly acquired French car? Bring dollars only, courtesy US army, which occupies the Gulf region, providing ‘security’ to that area. Or try the Russians, maybe they accept euro’s. So how is the graph above going to look like in 10, 20, 30 years time? We could be honest and say we don’t know, but that’s not a billable answer. So our guess would be that, ignoring resource depletion and the possibility of war, the green euro area will increase somewhat and that a small band representing Chinese money will appear, both at the cost of the dollar, but that if the international system remains stable, the dollar could hold out quite some time. But that is a big if. The greatest threat to international financial stability comes from Washington itself, in its unwillingness/inability to cut its spending and moderate its ambitions. Washington could reduce its military budget with 50% without compromising its own security, but it won’t. Washington is up to something, prepares to jump and does not mind if the American launchpad for that jump will get under water because of the jump and the rest of the world knows it and starts to react, putting Washington in dangerous isolation.

    But maybe all the talk about the reserve currencies of the past is meaningless for the direct future as the most likely successor for the dollar has not been mentioned in the list above: barter, meaning no currency at all. If everything breaks down and no trust is left, this is going to be the mechanism to keep economic life going, be it on a the back burner. In the thirties the Germans traded locomotives against Argentinian wheat, circumventing financial institutions in Anglosphere, which was not appreciated in London and New York. One thing we do know for certain, namely that the Unipolar Moment of US supremacy is going to be just that: a moment (1991-2003). What is really in store is a chaotic declining world, where modernity is going to be traded in for archaism, where all the peaks will be behind us, except peak hurt:

    1914 – Peak Europe (at the eve of the Great War)
    1969 – Peak USA (moon landing)
    2005 – Peak conventional oil
    2008 – Peak West (Lehman crash)
    2018 – Peak fossil energy

    Read more…

  • Gazprom To Sell Israeli LNG

    tamarfieldmap[source]
    Source: Tamar natural gas field in the Mediterranean. Volume: 3 million tons/year of LNG. Size Tamar: at least 8 trillion feet3. Time span deal: 20 year. Start deliveries: April 2013. For Gazprom this means moving away from the traditional pipeline trade with European customers.

    [upi.com]
    [en.rian.ru]
    [bloomberg.com]
    [wikipedia.org] – Tamar gas field

    Read more…

    Construction Iranian-Pakistani Natural Gas Pipeline About To Begin

    IPI-Pipeline[source]
    Total cost: $7.5 billion. Capacity: 40 billion m3 (1.4×1012 ft3) per year. Supplier: South Pars field. Work on the 780-kilometer pipeline ($1.5 billion) would begin on the Pakistani side of the border, as the 900-kilometer Iranian portion of the pipeline is already nearly finished. Unsurprisingly, the US (and Saudi-Arabia) are not amused and are looking for ways to discretely sabotage the construction. But Pakistan needs the energy and construction will go ahead anyway. Weak point though is that the pipeline runs through politically insecure Balochi territory, where the US and SA support separatism.

    [csmonitor.com]
    [orientalreview.org] – War, Pipelineistan-style, Pepe ESCOBAR
    [wikipedia.org]

    Read more…

    New Iraq-Jordan Pipeline To Circumvent Gulf

    Basra-Aqaba-pipeline
    Iraq plans to build a new two leg pipeline from 1) Basra-Haditha (red, 680 km, 2.25 mbd) and 2) Haditha-Aqaba (blue, Jordan Red Sea port, 1000 km, 1 mbd).

    [meed.com]
    [presentation] – pdf, Iraq Ministry of Oil presentation, December 2012

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